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October 18th First Call
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
3:28lesson
Market sentiment and geopolitical tensions
- Market down 4.5% last week
- Semiconductors down 10%
- Core Weave lost 25% in 5 days
- Bonds trading north of 15%
- Treasury market moving rapidly
8:02lesson
Weekend market and geopolitical developments
- Weekend Wall Street down 0.27%
- Weekend oil up 0.2%
- Iran saber rattling from Trump
- Market open at year level
- Sentiment steadied after European close
9:57lesson
Bond and equity market dynamics
- Bonds gapping open higher
- Notes up 7 ticks
- Asia up on Friday
- Inherent follow-through
- Portfolio adjustments needed
11:59lesson
Data center challenges and market sentiment
- Data centers running into trouble
- 47 major projects delayed/canceled
- 35% of pipeline credible
- Market holding up despite weakness
- Sentiment not panicking yet
14:06lesson
Inflation data and market expectations
- Bonds doing what they're doing
- Oil surging
- Inflation data hot
- Market baking in cyclical risk
- Term premium not moving up
16:23lesson
Earnings and economic calendar
- Blended Q3 earnings growth 29%
- 84% of companies beat estimates
- Nasdaq correction stats
- Treasury auction calendar
- PMIs end of week
18:32lesson
Volatility and market dynamics
- VIX closed at 1999
- Volatility futures at 1891
- AI infrastructure names volatile
- Trade vs investment question
- Market sentiment shifting
20:29lesson
Earnings calendar and market narratives
- Meta earnings report Wednesday
- TSMC and AI infrastructure names
- Volatility returning
- Catalysts left and right
- Market sentiment question
23:15lesson
Inflation and market reactions
- Open AI revenue whisper number
- Market spooked by 20 billion delta
- Bond rally and stock reversal
- Hot inflation data
- Energy shock not computing
25:58lesson
Gold, silver, and market volatility
- Gold inching up
- Silver had tough week
- Volatility squeezed out
- IVR arrow pointing wrong way
- Shallow series of higher lows
28:07lesson
Market sensitivity and policy
- Sensitivity in policy
- Every data point under microscope
- Fed not doing anything
- PPI and CPI reactions
- Market reactions to data
30:30lesson
Bond market and sentiment
- Bottom in bond market
- Economist cover story
- Sentiment market of the market
- Contrarian indicator
- Traders vs economists
32:34lesson
NASDAQ corrections and historical data
- NASDAQ down 6% from local high
- Historical data since 1986
- 6% decline in 10-day window
- Forward returns analysis
- Crisis vs non-crisis episodes
34:26lesson
Crisis episodes and market behavior
- Q4 2018 sell-off
- 2020 COVID
- 2022 inflation Fed shock
- Market behavior in crises
- Non-crisis episode analysis
36:17lesson
Market recovery and opportunities
- NASDAQ up 0.6%
- Bonds up
- Gold not selling off
- Opportunities in AI story
- Law of Ira Harris
38:16lesson
Technological transformation and market speculation
- AI as real deal
- Historical examples of speculation
- Railroads, telecoms, telephone
- Market speculation in infancy
- Right idea, wrong execution
40:42lesson
Market dynamics and future outlook
- Nasdaq up 0.6%
- SP up 0.3%
- Dow Jones and Russell rallying
- Gold up 0.4%
- Market finding a level
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