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Someone Put 16 Million in Tesla Calls on a Promise Delayed Six Times

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Breakdown

0:04TSLA· ticker

Tesla calls die in 2 weeks — Roadster reveal catalyst

  • 16.03 million short-dated calls struck between 8-15 days
  • 3 of 4 trades go off in final 90 seconds of Monday trade
  • October 16th 385 call — 6.89 million premium
  • October 16th 397.5 call — 2.51 million premium
  • October 23rd 400 call — 4.3 million premium
1:51TSLA· ticker

Tesla calls imply 5.8% move — Roadster event burden

  • Highest break even around 408.34
  • Target needs to see 401.56 within 15 days
  • Options imply 5.8% move through October 16th
  • 397.5 call break even at 401.56
  • Roadster event has high burden for further out of the money calls
3:33TSLA· ticker

Tesla deliveries beat expectations — negative free cash flow

  • Q3 deliveries 486,532 vs expected 461-464K
  • Tesla jumps 5% on delivery beat
  • Deliveries down 2% YoY
  • Inventory drawing down by 22,000 units
  • Free cash flow negative at $1.06 billion

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