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The Stock Market and US Jobs Data: Trouble Ahead? Ilya Spivak Says This is What He's Watching

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ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:11lesson

Market chop and diamond top pattern

  • Choppy range continuation
  • Diamond top pattern possible
  • Break implies 6,900 target
2:57CL· ticker

Crude oil — war premium erasing

  • Oil back to pre-war levels
  • Geopolitical risk premium fading
  • Tankers exiting Hormuz
5:41US dollar· ticker

Dollar index — sentiment barometer

  • Dollar at year-high levels
  • Dual role as liquidity and yield
  • Central banks selling gold reserves
8:03gold· ticker

Gold — selloff ending?

  • Consolidating after war selloff
  • RSI diverging
  • Vigor behind selloff draining
10:41bonds· ticker

Bonds — stabilizing trend

  • Bond market trying to base
  • Yields sharply higher
  • Inflation threat reduced
13:34lesson

Manufacturing PMI — demand softening

  • Backlog declining
  • New orders slowing
  • Deliveries quickening
16:34lesson

Wage-inflation mismatch — consumer squeeze

  • Average hourly earnings 3.5%
  • Inflation over 4%
  • Investment engine driving growth
19:34lesson

Economic overheating — investment vs consumption

  • Business investment 10% growth
  • Consumption only 0.5%
  • Service sectors contracting
22:27lesson

Fed policy expectations — rate hike scenario

  • 25bp hike priced in September
  • 98.7% chance by October
  • Potential for rate cuts if demand weakens
24:58lesson

Market reaction to economic turn

  • Cash out into US dollar
  • Liquidity pull
  • Stocks likely to break down

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