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The Stock Market and US Jobs Data: Trouble Ahead? Ilya Spivak Says This is What He's Watching
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:11lesson
Market chop and diamond top pattern
- Choppy range continuation
- Diamond top pattern possible
- Break implies 6,900 target
2:57CL· ticker
Crude oil — war premium erasing
- Oil back to pre-war levels
- Geopolitical risk premium fading
- Tankers exiting Hormuz
5:41US dollar· ticker
Dollar index — sentiment barometer
- Dollar at year-high levels
- Dual role as liquidity and yield
- Central banks selling gold reserves
8:03gold· ticker
Gold — selloff ending?
- Consolidating after war selloff
- RSI diverging
- Vigor behind selloff draining
10:41bonds· ticker
Bonds — stabilizing trend
- Bond market trying to base
- Yields sharply higher
- Inflation threat reduced
13:34lesson
Manufacturing PMI — demand softening
- Backlog declining
- New orders slowing
- Deliveries quickening
16:34lesson
Wage-inflation mismatch — consumer squeeze
- Average hourly earnings 3.5%
- Inflation over 4%
- Investment engine driving growth
19:34lesson
Economic overheating — investment vs consumption
- Business investment 10% growth
- Consumption only 0.5%
- Service sectors contracting
22:27lesson
Fed policy expectations — rate hike scenario
- 25bp hike priced in September
- 98.7% chance by October
- Potential for rate cuts if demand weakens
24:58lesson
Market reaction to economic turn
- Cash out into US dollar
- Liquidity pull
- Stocks likely to break down
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