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Markets Freaked Out About the US Election, Then Loved It. What's Next?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:09lesson
Market reaction to US election
- Election results caused dramatic market moves
- Uncertainty around political deadlock
- Fiscal policy entanglement
- Market relief from event risk removal
2:50S&P· ticker
S&P 500 reversal and structure
- S&P had violent reversal overnight
- Markets initially sold off due to blue wave
- Rally reflects event risk removal
- Highs still lower than October tops
- Lows still lower than October lows
5:25NASDAQ· ticker
NASDAQ technical levels and weakness
- NASDAQ had initial sell-off
- Bounced back to positive territory
- Technical levels now act as resistance
- Market stalling at these levels
8:00Crude oil· ticker
Crude oil selling off and speculation
- Crude oil selling off aggressively
- Speculation about US-Iran war ending
- Market trying to carve out reversal
10:13Gold· ticker
Gold rally and critical range
- Precious metals post formidable rally
- Turn secured overnight
- Testing critical range lows
- Short-term charts show queasiness
12:59Silver· ticker
Silver rally and critical range
- Silver also rallied
- Testing critical range lows
- Short-term charts show queasiness
15:38Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin bounce and resistance
- Bitcoin managed heroic bounce
- Hit former support turned resistance
- Potential for higher push
15:39EUR· ticker
Euro attempting to bottom
- Euro attempting to bottom
- Clawing its way higher
15:40GBP· ticker
GBP strength and resistance
- Pound stronger despite rate decision
- Testing resistance level
15:41AUD· ticker
AUD long position and dollar dominance
- Australian dollar shows strength
- US dollar reasserts dominance
- Long position remains intact
15:42CAD· ticker
CAD weakness and divergence
- Canadian dollar uniquely weak
- Divergence in market response
- Anticipates special difference in trade negotiations
15:43lesson
Economic data and market engagement
- Economic data becoming interesting post-election
- ISM services numbers weaker than expected
- Second consecutive month of decline
- Weaker counter to manufacturing data
15:44lesson
GDP and economic structure
- Consumption is largest part of GDP
- Investment outpaces consumption in GDP
- Expensive imports offset consumption gains
- Data center boom as main driver
15:45lesson
Fed policy and market positioning
- Fed policy odds unchanged post-election
- One hike by January fully discounted
- Another hike by June fully discounted
- Market positioning remains cyclical risk
15:46AUD· ticker
AUD long position and profit taking
- Still long AUD against USD
- Flipped on CAD, now slightly short
- Still long Bitcoin
15:47SPY· ticker
SPY short position and put verticals
- Still short stocks via SPY
- Put verticals on SPY
15:48TLT· ticker
TLT long position and call verticals
- Still long bonds via TLT
- Call verticals on TLT
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