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$11 Million in Seagate Puts and Big Bets Against SK Hynix. Read the Tape.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:04SK Hynix· ticker
SK Hynix — ADR premium compression, 50% rich to Seoul shares
- IPO'd July 12th, closed 30% above offer price
- ADR trades 50% premium over Seoul shares
- Put buyers target premium compression before July 29th ADR conversion
- December 18th 120 puts at 111% IV, break even near 104
- Put buyers don't need business deterioration, just price convergence
1:52SK Hynix· ticker
SK Hynix — put buying reflects listing distortion
- September 18th 150 put pulled 3.9M premium
- Break even 132.44 (32% below spot)
- December 18th 100 puts at 112% IV, break even near 90
- Buyers assume ADR premium will compress
- No need for business deterioration, just price convergence
3:44SpaceX· ticker
SpaceX — IPO performance as historical reference
- IPO'd at 135, peaked 225, now 136
- Median 30 IPOs up 3% week 1, down 9% year 1
- First-year max drawdown median 54%
- No historical guide for SK Hynix
- Put buyers react to listing distortion reflexively
5:32Seagate· ticker
Seagate — earnings-driven de-risking trade
- July 24th 850 calls pulled 11.2M premium
- Break even 803.32 (8.5% below spot)
- Expiration 4 days before July 28th earnings
- Stock down 22% from June high, 20% below peak
- Need 8.5% drop to break even by July 24th
7:18Cerebrus· ticker
Cerebrus — IPO performance as historical reference
- IPO'd at 185, closed above 311
- Now 4% above offer, 40% below first day close
- Great companies can become poor entries with inflated IPO prices
- Market reacts to listing distortion reflexively
- No historical guide for SK Hynix
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