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The One Signal Before a Crash: VIX Futures Backwardation
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Bubble vs. Timing — Two distinct bets
- Dalio calls bubble at 80% probability
- Schiller Cape at 40.6 (98.8th percentile)
- Bubble is valuation call, timing is separate bet
2:16VIX futures· ticker
VIX futures contango vs. backwardation
- Steep contango in VIX futures
- Crude oil in backwardation
- Backwardation linked to market selloff
4:12NASDAQ· ticker
NASDAQ rally and tech stock concentration
- 4-day rip in E-Minis from 7350 to 7750
- MAG7 earnings drove rally
- Concentration risk if tech stocks falter
6:04VIX· ticker
VIX at 15 — low reading with potential for volatility
- VIX at 15 handle (low reading)
- VIX futures need to flatten into backwardation
- Crude oil prices at $100+ could drive selloff
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