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Ten Years of Data on Where to Put Your Stop

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ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00lesson

Stop loss is insurance, not a profit tool

  • Stop loss is insurance
  • Not a profitable tool
  • Statistics show stop loss shrinks losses
  • Sell-offs wiped profits over 10 years
2:08lesson

Win rate and loss frequency over 10 years

  • Win rate 73.8% over 10 years
  • 11% of trades lost money
  • 2026 win rate 72%
  • 2027 loss frequency 7%
4:24lesson

Stop loss percentage and trade outcomes

  • 30% stop loss exits 51 trades
  • 24 losers, 27 winners
  • Red exit = wrong trade
  • Tail exit = real loser
6:12lesson

Cost and savings of stop losses

  • 50% stop loss saves $30 on bad trades
  • Costs $43 on good trades
  • Average loss on 10 worst trades: $977
  • Stop loss reduces average loss to $177
8:16lesson

Stop loss impact on P&L and risk

  • No stop loss: average P&L $27
  • 30% stop loss: P&L $22
  • 50% stop loss: P&L $14
  • Risk: 85% loss without stop loss
10:21lesson

Tight vs. wide stop loss trade-offs

  • Tight stops are expensive insurance
  • Wide stops are cheap but don't mitigate losses
  • Consistency beats aggressiveness
  • 50-70% stop loss is best for portfolio
12:11lesson

Avoid stops hitting out of the money

  • Stops should not trigger out of the money
  • Use theoretical analysis tool to determine in-the-money levels
  • Stop loss should reflect actual risk
  • Position sizing is more important than extra insurance

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