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Mike Butler Reads the Earnings Math on Microsoft, Meta and Robinhood.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00META· ticker
Earnings Reports & Implied Volatility Analysis — META, HOOD, RSP
- Microsoft beats EPS 10/10 times
- Meta higher implied volatility
- Robin Hood 3/5 earnings outside expected
- Focus on skew to predict move direction
1:48META· ticker
Microsoft — Inside/Outside Move Potential
- $400 stock with $27 expected move
- 420 strike @ $6, 380 strike @ $680
- No clear skew in velocity risk
- Historical lows at 350, recent rebound to 400
3:42META· ticker
Meta — Higher Implied Volatility & Skew
- $600 stock with 48-point implied move
- 595/635 call @ $1050 vs 555 put @ $9.90
- 3-day vs 24-day cycle skew
- Market prices 50-point move for 3-day cycle
5:30HOOD· ticker
Robin Hood — High Implied Volatility & Downside Risk
- $90 stock with 9-point 3-day implied move
- 102 strike @ $160 vs 82 strike @ $140
- 16% historical downside gap
- 24-day cycle priced at 15 points
7:28lesson
Earnings Trading Strategy — Defined Risk Positions
- Calendar spreads for META near-term
- 500 strike calendar spread for Microsoft
- Fade or sideline earnings plays
- Defined risk approach for volatility events
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