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Cem Karsan Still Sees a 20% Decline. December or January Decides How.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Market rotation from semis to software and consumer names
- Rotation out of semis into software into consumer related names
- Bond move two standard deviation
- Lack of support from administration
- Cyber stuff noise from Trump
- Fear of what might come midterms
1:51Bonds· ticker
Bonds — riskoff move, pre-midterm fear
- Riskoff move in bonds
- Cleanest shirt in dirty laundry
- Riskoff flight to safety
- Yields coming down
- Cap being drawn above market
3:56lesson
Market stress and dispersion
- Underneath the hood stress
- Index supported by V compression
- Massive dispersion and rotation
- Tech AI center of stress
- Midterms and Fed meeting as key events
5:44lesson
Market timeline and Fed meeting impact
- Two outcomes: rally into midterms or decline
- December or January as high probability
- Stair-step decline possibility
- Fed meeting as critical event
- Market uncertainty around midterms
7:37lesson
Potential 20% decline and global impact
- 20% decline post midterms
- Crisis scenario without more than 20% drop
- Market closure or unusual events
- Global financial repression by US
- US competing with China
9:20lesson
US financial policy and global implications
- US dollar centralization
- Taxing the world through dollar
- Competing with China
- US growth vs. global integration
- US assets underperforming
11:18US assets· ticker
US assets — underperformance and global impact
- US assets underperforming
- Tech and long duration assets
- Global markets worsening as US recovers
- Policy deployment dependency
- Fed and Treasury strength
13:00lesson
Pers and market liquidity
- Pers not big enough to affect institutional world
- Illiquid markets revert to real price
- Weekend selling unlikely to cause crash
- Retail traders as minor liquidity source
- No code in market communication
14:53lesson
Administration silence and market signals
- Administration gone quiet
- Talking down the market
- Listen closely to administration
- Fed meeting clues expected
- Prepare for market shocks
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