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The 10-Year Just Broke 5% for the First Time Since 2007
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:0010-Year Yield· ticker
10-Year Yield — 5.03%, highest since 2007
- 10-Year Yield reached 5.03%
- Highest since July 2007
- Yield changes equity comparison
- S&P 500 earnings yield 5.24%
- Higher yields raise financing costs
1:35Oil· ticker
Oil — $100+, heating oil at all-time highs
- Oil above $100
- Heating oil at all-time highs
- Stronger payrolls, firmer inflation
- Treasury supply problems
- Rising term premium due to geopolitics
1:36Fed· ticker
Fed — 94% chance of 25-basis-point hike
- 94% chance of Fed hiking 25 basis points
- Fed has never disappointed market with 55%+ chance
- Warsh frames move as insurance against inflation
- Market prices four hikes through end of 2027
1:37S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 — earnings yield 5.24%
- S&P 500 earnings yield 5.24%
- Little cushion before Treasury returns
- Higher yields reduce present value of cash flows
- Hyperscalers face debt overhangs
1:38Philadelphia SOX Index· ticker
Philadelphia SOX Index — 6% drop
- Philadelphia SOX Index fell 6%
- Anthropic and OpenAI debate AI safeguards
- Market discounts AI development risks
- Regulatory uncertainty cuts exposure
1:39Nvidia· ticker
Nvidia — CEO argues risks overstated
- Nvidia CEO argues risks overstated
- White House pushes back on tech restrictions
- Higher yields increase financing costs
- Present value of future earnings reduced
1:40Anthropic· ticker
Anthropic — debates AI safeguards
- Anthropic debates AI safeguards
- Concerns about model development and successors
- Market faces policy path for AI development
- Discount rate pressures
1:41OpenAI· ticker
OpenAI — debates AI safeguards
- OpenAI debates AI safeguards
- Market faces policy path for AI development
- Discount rate pressures
- Regulatory uncertainty cuts exposure
1:42lesson
Oil and rates dominate market focus
- Oil and rates are the daily focus
- Market assigns 94% chance of Fed hike
- Higher yields reduce present value of cash flows
- Regulatory uncertainty cuts exposure
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