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Cem Karsan Warned the Selloff Was Coming, Here’s How He Says to Survive It
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Weekend volatility ahead of midterms
- Fridays are momentum days due to weekend risk
- Vault unpinning likely Friday into Monday
- Institutions avoid buying during vacuum
- VA unpinning triggers market changes
1:53lesson
Market context and backwardation
- Tech names disappointed, zero guidance from Worsh
- Backwardation observed for first time
- Elon and Zuckerberg moved earnings
- Signs of volatility ahead of midterms
3:46lesson
Risk management and portfolio diversification
- Cut left tail, own good businesses
- Diversify across non-correlated assets
- Rebalancing as convexity tool
- Options as brakes for risk management
5:35lesson
Portfolio construction and risk-adjusted returns
- Avoid S&P 500 long-term risk
- Diversify across different beta exposures
- Hedging and rebalancing for convexity
- Monetize puts when opportunities arise
7:21lesson
Understanding VIX and volatility dynamics
- VIX unpinning indicates dealer behavior shift
- Fixed strike VIX shows liquidity drying up
- Volume correlates with volatility spikes
- Volatility events often accompany big moves
9:15lesson
Gold as a hedge and its volatility
- Gold down 2.7% despite flight to safety
- Gold as beta 1 hedge for non-options users
- Gold historically volatile but high-performing
- Gold as currency during debasement
11:10lesson
Gold and silver positioning
- Gold may become flight to safety during decline
- Perceived floor for gold and silver
- Gold could surge 20% in one day
- Long-term bullish trend for gold
13:17lesson
Market context and outlook
- Markets down 1.35%, S&P down 100 points
- Weak earnings from big names
- Gold as potential flight to safety
- Debasement could trigger gold surge
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