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tastylive

A Market This Dead Is Paradise for Option Sellers

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Chapters6 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00ES· ticker

ES — drifting, CPI as catalyst

  • 5-day drift like watching paint dry
  • CPI tomorrow could move market
  • Iran situation irrelevant
  • Crude at $700 still drifting
1:48NQ· ticker

NQ — downtrend, resistance level

  • Gentle downtrend vs ES's lifetime highs
  • Resistance level not particularly interesting
  • Inflection point tomorrow: bullish or bearish
  • Inflation numbers seem irrelevant
3:45lesson

Midterms influencing market

  • Market kept up by midterms until November
  • Potential government shift post-elections
  • Backloaded S&P volatility: 12% IV in 9-day cycle
5:46bonds· ticker

Bonds — grinding lower, rates rising

  • 7th year of bear market in bonds
  • Lows near July levels critical
  • Yen interventions ineffective
  • Interest rates grinding higher
7:46Rocket Lab· ticker

Rocket Lab — short-term volatility

  • 10-point implied move rare
  • Support near $104, resistance at $150
  • Overhead supply cluster at $150
  • Earnings report could break resistance
9:43lesson

Market positioning reset

  • ES/NQ up 0.01% despite choppy markets
  • Meta's $15 gap as bearish target
  • Double position on Meta if gap closes
  • Set records as positioning reset

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