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The Fed Got A Lot More Hawkish. Markets Say It's Still Not Enough.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:14lesson
Market reaction to Fed's hawkish turn
- Fed hawkish turn expected
- Market reacted negatively
- Hike baked in
- S&P 500 down day
- 7,500 level next inflection
2:39lesson
Gold and dollar response to Fed
- Gold constrained response
- Dollar rallies
- Euro weak
- Pound special case
- 7,500 level support
5:25lesson
Bitcoin and bond dynamics
- Bitcoin holds range
- Bonds show divergence
- Crude oil momentum loss
- Potential pullback in crude
- Bond relief possible
8:10lesson
Fed policy statement and projections
- Fed statement hawkish
- GDP expectations upgraded
- Inflation expectations higher
- Rate path upgraded
- 2027 rates flat
10:53lesson
Fed funds rate and market expectations
- Fed funds rate hike
- Majority for more hikes
- Market expects 74% second hike
- Fed less hawkish than markets
- Bond relief not material
13:28lesson
Central bank follow-up and inflation
- BOE expected to hold
- Inflation data weak
- BOJ rate hike expected
- Yen intervention question
- Pound pullback possible
16:13lesson
Positioning and market outlook
- Long gold, short dollar
- Long Bitcoin via call vertical
- Short stock side worked
- Silver held up
- Debasement trade down but not out
18:38lesson
Macro money summary and future outlook
- Macro money returns tomorrow
- Follow-up on BOE and BOJ
- Potential dollar pullback
- Debasement trade story ongoing
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