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Brent Kochuba Says Puts Are as Cheap as They've Been All Year
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Chapters11 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Volatility regimes misaligned with trade opportunities
- Volatility regimes don't line up with typical trades
- Nothing left to milk, wait for regime shift
- Opportunity in Nvidia and SMH options
- Cheap ways to play upside or downside
1:36lesson
Index mean reversion and implied volatility
- Index mean reversion is strong
- Buying dips, selling rips intraday
- Shortdated options are cheap
- Earnings catalysts not yet materialized
3:12TLT· ticker
TLT skew shift signals rate positioning
- TLT IV rank high, put skew rich
- Call skew rich 5 days ago
- Call skew faded, back to put skew
- Signal rates may not reverse
4:45lesson
Explaining skew in equity indices
- SPY and IWM have upside skew
- Call skew rich relative to puts
- Market pricing calls over puts
- Contrarian view: buy puts
6:18lesson
Single stock skew and market positioning
- Single stocks have upside skew
- Calls rich relative to puts
- Market priced for upside
- Rates higher = drag on stocks
7:47lesson
Implied volatility and skew analysis
- 25 delta call IV rich relative to put
- Put skew is soft spot
- Buy puts as contrarian play
- Rates higher = puts cheaper
9:24lesson
Risk reversal and skew pricing
- Risk reversal = call IV - put IV
- Calls richer than puts
- Market priced for upside
- Interest rates impact skew
11:04lesson
Election skew and market positioning
- Call skew around election period
- Traders bet on market move higher
- Persistent put selling
- Put wing smooshed lower
12:45lesson
Market positioning and rate impact
- People losing belief in rate cuts
- Put wing sold, skew to bottom right
- Shortdated puts not yielding premium
- Equity market needs rate pause
14:16lesson
Equity market dynamics and VIX
- Equity V is dead, no sign of rate concern
- Market stalled at all-time highs
- Gamma positioning weakens on down move
- VIX term structure in contango
15:49lesson
Market sentiment and hedging
- Micro dips get bought quickly
- Put wing not paying off since April
- Hedge with put flies short term
- Market needs catalyst for rally
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