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Inflation Just Beat Expectations

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Breakdown

0:00CPI· ticker

CPI data strengthens case for September rate hike

  • August CPI core at 0.3% above 0.2% expected
  • Headline CPI at 0.4% and 3.4% YoY
  • Monthly acceleration in CPI strengthens hike case
  • Fed hike odds rose to 90%
  • Two-year yield near 2.6%
  • Stocks rally amid rate hike expectations
1:4010-year yield· ticker

10-year yield drops to 4.92% amid curve flattening

  • 10-year yield drops to 4.92%
  • Two-year yield rises to 4.6%
  • Curve flattening without long-end sell-off
  • Front-end yields reflect Fed meeting
  • Long-end reflects oil, fiscal, global yields
1:41S&P 500· ticker

S&P 500 earnings yield north of 5%

  • S&P 500 earnings yield north of 5%
  • Cushion exists before 10-year crosses 5%
  • Sustained 10-year above 5% could cause problems
1:42oil· ticker

Oil near $100 a barrel amid energy shock

  • Oil near $100 a barrel
  • Brent above 100, WTI near 100
  • US diesel prices exceed $6 a gallon
  • Historically low inventories
  • Diesel prices can push higher
1:43lesson

Diesel prices spread inflation risk through economy

  • Diesel costs spread through trucking, agriculture, construction
  • Diesel prices impact Amazon deliveries
  • Core goods and services inflation risk rising
  • IEA warns Gulf flows may normalize slowly
  • CPI reduced immediate upside inflation risk
1:44CPI· ticker

CPI data misses full energy shock

  • CPI captures only part of Middle Eastern disruption
  • September data includes higher crude, freight, war risk insurance
  • Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions continue
  • Diesel costs spread quickly through economy
1:45lesson

Market focus on oil, rates, and CPI

  • All about oil and rates
  • CPI not scaring the market
  • Three things to watch for

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