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Inflation Just Beat Expectations
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00CPI· ticker
CPI data strengthens case for September rate hike
- August CPI core at 0.3% above 0.2% expected
- Headline CPI at 0.4% and 3.4% YoY
- Monthly acceleration in CPI strengthens hike case
- Fed hike odds rose to 90%
- Two-year yield near 2.6%
- Stocks rally amid rate hike expectations
1:4010-year yield· ticker
10-year yield drops to 4.92% amid curve flattening
- 10-year yield drops to 4.92%
- Two-year yield rises to 4.6%
- Curve flattening without long-end sell-off
- Front-end yields reflect Fed meeting
- Long-end reflects oil, fiscal, global yields
1:41S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 earnings yield north of 5%
- S&P 500 earnings yield north of 5%
- Cushion exists before 10-year crosses 5%
- Sustained 10-year above 5% could cause problems
1:42oil· ticker
Oil near $100 a barrel amid energy shock
- Oil near $100 a barrel
- Brent above 100, WTI near 100
- US diesel prices exceed $6 a gallon
- Historically low inventories
- Diesel prices can push higher
1:43lesson
Diesel prices spread inflation risk through economy
- Diesel costs spread through trucking, agriculture, construction
- Diesel prices impact Amazon deliveries
- Core goods and services inflation risk rising
- IEA warns Gulf flows may normalize slowly
- CPI reduced immediate upside inflation risk
1:44CPI· ticker
CPI data misses full energy shock
- CPI captures only part of Middle Eastern disruption
- September data includes higher crude, freight, war risk insurance
- Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions continue
- Diesel costs spread quickly through economy
1:45lesson
Market focus on oil, rates, and CPI
- All about oil and rates
- CPI not scaring the market
- Three things to watch for
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