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Two 15 Million Call Trades Hit Four Seconds Apart, but They're Nothing Alike
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:04lesson
Options activity analysis
- Unusual options activity signals market sentiment
- Signal versus news framework to interpret moves
- Microsoft and Madna as key names
- Calls near 52-week highs
1:54MSFT· ticker
Microsoft — call activity $16M
- $16M call bought on Microsoft November 550
- 31 days to expiration
- 30 IV at trade
- Break even at 566.88
- Stock at 546
3:46MRNA· ticker
Madna — call activity $15.3M
- $15.3M call bought on Madna 240
- 94 days to expiration
- 87% IV at trade
- Break even at 268.49
- Stock at 214
5:30MSFT· ticker
Microsoft — call details
- Break even at 566.88
- Stock at 546
- Earnings in October
- Open interest jumps 43%
- Volume 4,000 contracts
7:26MSFT· ticker
Microsoft — fundamentals
- $4.02 trillion market cap
- 50% from June low
- Azur revenue up 17.8%
- Net income up 31.3%
- Forward PE at 30
7:27MRNA· ticker
Madna — call details
- Break even at 268.49
- Stock at 214
- 87% IV at trade
- Volume 5,369 contracts
- Open interest 2,735
7:28MRNA· ticker
Madna — fundamentals
- 663% S&P 500 performance
- 8/19 announcement catalyst
- NASDAQ 100 inclusion on 10/9
- 82.5 IVR
- 87% IV
7:29MRNA· ticker
Madna — analyst targets
- Average analyst target 119.56
- Highest target 170
- Break even at 268.49
- 79% above average target
- 26% above highest target
7:30MRNA· ticker
Madna — catalyst
- October 24th data release
- Kitruda cancer vaccine
- Melanoma drug potential
- Catalyst for upside
- Personalized vaccine thesis
7:31lesson
Signal versus noise analysis
- Signal in calendar events
- Microsoft earnings
- Madna data release
- Both as catalysts
- Signal versus noise framework
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