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Someone Just Bought the Trap on Both Sides of the AI Rotation

NowPress play to follow along0:00 / 8:24
Chapters7 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:04SNDK· ticker

SanDisk — rotation trade, puts bought on weakness

  • Rotation trades playing out between semis and software
  • Puts bought on both sides of the rotation
  • Market pointing to both sides vulnerable
  • SanDisk down 35% from high, up 648% YTD
  • 1400 put at September 18th, 4 days to go
1:46CRWD· ticker

CrowdStrike — put bought on strength

  • CrowdStrike up 60% this year, 50% gain today
  • 210 puts at November 20th, 67 days to go
  • 99% of trade crossed against 138 contracts
  • Break even at $198.49
  • Valuation at 147x forward earnings
3:23DRAM ETF· ticker

DRAM ETF — technical bear market

  • DRAM ETF down significantly
  • Substantial outflows over recent weeks
  • SanDisk down 35% from high
  • Still up 648% YTD
  • Short-term direction may be down
5:06lesson

Short-dated puts vs long-dated options

  • Short-dated puts focus on near-term momentum
  • Long-dated options consider valuation and sector evolution
  • 4-day put vs 67-day put
  • Valuation concerns ignored until market re-evaluates
  • Interest rates can bite on long-dated trades
6:52lesson

Market rotation and valuation dynamics

  • Rotation between memory and cybersecurity
  • Valuation concerns persist despite momentum
  • CrowdStrike at 147x forward earnings
  • SanDisk at 22x earnings
  • Fundamental believers can stretch valuations
6:53lesson

Ex-post facto valuation re-evaluation

  • Valuation concerns ignored until market re-evaluates
  • Interest rates can bite on overvalued names
  • CrowdStrike's valuation may re-evaluate in 67 days
  • SanDisk's short-term weakness may be tested
  • Market may re-evaluate valuations after rate hikes
6:54lesson

Signal vs. noise in market trades

  • Two trades hit tape at same time
  • Signal vs. noise debate
  • Volatility in semiconductors vs software
  • Different time scales for trades
  • Market may re-evaluate valuations

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