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Two Identical Losses. One Came Back 90% of the Time, One 20%
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00SPY· ticker
SPY 15 DTE strangles - 1x loss analysis
- 15 DTE SPY strangles at 20 delta
- 1x loss occurs 27% of time
- Loss sources: call/put breaches, IV pops
- Recovery probability 41% overall
1:37lesson
1x loss source impact on recovery
- Call breaches (47%) vs put breaches (44%)
- IV pops (8.5%) occur early
- Breaches near expiration
- IV losses recover 90% of time
3:21lesson
Market conditions & loss dynamics
- Bullish markets favor call breaches
- IV pops recover quickly
- Put breaches have 50% recovery
- Tail risk varies by source
5:04lesson
Position management strategies
- Rolling strangles to higher DTE
- Time to recover impacts CVAR
- Capital deployment balancing act
- Recovery vs redeployment tradeoff
6:30lesson
IV impact & recovery mechanics
- IV losses turn to put breaches (48%)
- Tail risk comparable to put breaches
- Early IV pops recover with time
- CVar management critical
9:46lesson
Market-specific risk dynamics
- SPY IV increases with downside moves
- Tech stocks show opposite pattern
- Breaches vs non-breaches
- Capital efficiency considerations
13:09lesson
Final recovery probabilities
- Call breaches: 20% recovery
- Put breaches: 50% recovery
- IV losses: 90% recovery
- Tail risk management essential
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