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Why Cem Karsan Says Some Stocks Will Rise in the Next Crash
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Chapters13 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Market pressure and tail risk
- Markets stable but pressure underneath
- Outcomes can be tail outcomes
- Midterms week has many catalysts
1:38lesson
Uncertainty and tail risk
- Uncertainty is significant
- Prepare for unexpected outcomes
- Tail risk is not same as volatility
3:29lesson
Tail risk and convexity
- Tail risk is dramatically underpriced
- Own tail convexity
- Black swan is not same as gray swan
5:14lesson
Market moves and liquidity
- Big moves around midterms
- Securing liquidity and robustness
- Surprises are common
7:08lesson
Earnings and market divergence
- Earnings divergence between Apple and AI names
- Market rally with Apple down
- Chip names up after oversold
10:54lesson
Fed meeting and market risk
- Fed meeting represents risk
- Reiterate previous statements is negative
- Fundamental realities haven't changed
12:44lesson
Market dispersion and rotation
- Tech pullback and rotation into other sectors
- Stair step down in tech
- Market dispersion is key
14:32lesson
Historical market decline and rotation
- NASDAQ decline before S&P
- Rotation into healthcare, energy, financials
- Tech leadership shot first
16:16lesson
Market performance and sectors
- Tech down 50%, others up
- Healthcare and energy perform well
- Flight to safety in healthcare and energy
19:58lesson
Market rotation and counter trend moves
- Counter trend moves after decline
- Buy the dip after 50% decline
- Opportunities in rotation
21:51lesson
Market decline and opportunities
- Potential 25-40% decline
- Opportunities in large swaps
- Market not a straight line
23:34lesson
Market fragility and tectonic pressure
- Fragility in the system
- Massive pressure underneath
- Prepare for tail outcomes
25:17lesson
Minsky moment and system fragility
- Fragility and sand pile analogy
- One move can trigger collapse
- System is fragile and under pressure
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