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Cem Karsan Warned This Was Coming. He Says the Unwind Is Just Starting.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00NASDAQ 100· ticker
NASDAQ 100 — 10% down from October, record correction
- NASDAQ 100 down 10% from October
- Record correction territory
- Tech names still weak
- V compression driving dispersion
- Deleveraging from hedge funds
1:55S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 up, excluding AI
- S&P 500 up, excluding AI
- Interesting action in the market
- Expect more pain
- Structural reasons for decline
- AI debt unsustainable
3:49Treasury· ticker
Treasury debt and AI funding
- AI debt equals 29% of Treasury notes
- Unsustainable borrowing levels
- Government intervention needed
- Corporate bailout without populist reason
- Crowding out Treasury financing
5:35V, Charm· ticker
V and Charm flows driving market
- Classic V and Charm flow setup
- Morning rally due to flows
- High implied volatility
- Short deltas bought back
- Momentum weak despite flows
7:29lesson
Awareness of market flows
- Be aware of positive flows
- Flows not related to fundamentals
- Opportunity for long short funds
- Structural flows around open
- Higher implied volatility
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