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Why Noel Smith Says Bonds Won't Save Your Portfolio Anymore
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Bond volatility and market dynamics
- Bonds more volatile than notes today
- Velocity and volatility of bonds dangerous to stocks
- Market needs to reprice debt quickly
1:44lesson
Bond volatility and market expectations
- Bond volatility raises risk models
- Equities and bonds as cousins
- Market expects Trump to act before midterms
3:20lesson
Market challenges to Treasury Secretary
- Market expects Trump to act before midterms
- Political capital to move markets up
- Market has cried wolf before
4:55lesson
Bond yields and allocation calculus
- Yields on bonds vs dividend yields
- Market shifts from four to five rate hikes
- ZQ futures move into five hike camp
6:41lesson
Bond volatility and trading strategies
- Bond volatility is relatively contained
- Calendar spread to harvest time and long Vega
- Avoid owning straddle or selling condor
8:11lesson
Stock-bond disconnect and market dispersion
- Stocks holding up while bonds are volatile
- Dispersion within the market
- Index vs individual stock performance
9:46lesson
Tail risks and VIX trading
- VIX likely to stay sticky through midterms
- Buy upside VIX call spreads and sell puts
- Super Bowls and Super Bears trade setup
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