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Why Noel Smith Says Bonds Won't Save Your Portfolio Anymore

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Breakdown

0:00lesson

Bond volatility and market dynamics

  • Bonds more volatile than notes today
  • Velocity and volatility of bonds dangerous to stocks
  • Market needs to reprice debt quickly
1:44lesson

Bond volatility and market expectations

  • Bond volatility raises risk models
  • Equities and bonds as cousins
  • Market expects Trump to act before midterms
3:20lesson

Market challenges to Treasury Secretary

  • Market expects Trump to act before midterms
  • Political capital to move markets up
  • Market has cried wolf before
4:55lesson

Bond yields and allocation calculus

  • Yields on bonds vs dividend yields
  • Market shifts from four to five rate hikes
  • ZQ futures move into five hike camp
6:41lesson

Bond volatility and trading strategies

  • Bond volatility is relatively contained
  • Calendar spread to harvest time and long Vega
  • Avoid owning straddle or selling condor
8:11lesson

Stock-bond disconnect and market dispersion

  • Stocks holding up while bonds are volatile
  • Dispersion within the market
  • Index vs individual stock performance
9:46lesson

Tail risks and VIX trading

  • VIX likely to stay sticky through midterms
  • Buy upside VIX call spreads and sell puts
  • Super Bowls and Super Bears trade setup

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