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The AI Trade Is Back, but Stocks Hit the Same Wall. What’s Next?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:11lesson
Tech-led rally amid inflation data
- Stock markets higher on better-than-expected earnings
- Tech giants lead market cap gains
- AI narrative dominates
- Energy lags despite crude oil struggles
- Price action shows uncertainty on momentum
3:02lesson
Intraday price action and market congestion
- S&P 500 retesting former support/resistance levels
- Momentum fading against key levels
- NASDAQ retesting midterms-related levels
- Intraday exhaustion suggests violent retracement
- Crude oil testing support from September lows
5:38lesson
Precious metals and macroeconomic outlook
- Precious metals follow CPI-driven move
- Silver weaker than pre-inflation data
- Bottoming possibility with crude head and shoulders
- Economic data remains limited
- Focus shifts to macro and inflation
8:25lesson
Inflation data and Fed rate expectations
- Producer price index expected to rise 0.4% MoM
- Core PPI seen at 0.3% slowdown from 0.7%
- Fed pre-announced 50 basis points for 2026
- Markets now pricing 50 basis points more in 2027
- Inflation concerns dominate Fed policy outlook
11:12lesson
Core services inflation and economic vulnerability
- Core services inflation rising since July
- Inflation impact on core goods delayed
- Consumption drives 68% of GDP
- Investment growth outpaces consumption
- Import surge eats into consumption gains
13:45lesson
GDP growth and data center boom
- GDP growth driven by AI boom and investment
- Consumption growth lagging
- Imports surge due to oil shock and tariffs
- Data centers and inventories drive growth
- Economic vulnerability if growth slows
16:26lesson
PMI surveys and market risks
- Manufacturing PMI shows data center boom
- Services PMI drifting sideways
- Backlogs growing, employment slowing
- Inventories rising, price impetus slowing
- Consumer retrenchment risks data center momentum
19:13lesson
Trading positions and macro outlook
- Long gold and silver amid cyclical concerns
- Long AUD and GBP, short EUR
- Short NASDAQ and S&P
- Long bonds via TLT
- Macro money for the day
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