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Cathie Wood Says Oil Is Going to 30, This is What the Options Say
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Historical oil crashes and Kathy Wood's $30–$35 call
- Crude oil hit $93, 5% up move
- Kathy Wood calls $30–$35, not random
- Historical crashes: 1986 (60%), 2008 (75–80%), 2014–2016 (75%), 2020 (65%)
- 1986 context: $23 to $9, $87 today
- Call is $30–$35, 62% drop from $93
2:11lesson
Crude oil term structure and options analysis
- Crude oil term structure: $91 front, $83 May
- Backwardation: front month above next month
- Straddle analysis: $83 straddle, $100.50 break even
- Options pricing: $30–$35 not priced in
- Break even at $66.50 or $100.50
4:01lesson
Options pricing and probability of $30–$35 oil
- Delta of $40 put: 2% chance
- $35 put: 1% chance
- Options don't price in $30–$35
- Kathy gives herself time for geopolitical catalyst
- Market doesn't price in $30–$35 by May 2027
5:54lesson
Conclusion: Wild claim vs. market expectations
- Options don't back $30–$35 claim
- Kathy's thesis based on geopolitical catalyst
- Market expects $100.50 or $66.50 by May 2027
- Lower oil means cheaper gas
- Options show $30–$35 is very remote
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