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10 Million in Micron Calls After a Record Quarter Got Ignored
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0:04MU· ticker
Micron — record quarter, stock shrugged
- Record quarter for Micron
- Revenue up 379% YoY to 54.23B
- Adjusted EPS $3342, 11x prior
- Guided to 61.5B for current quarter
- EPS up 10% above street estimate
1:51lesson
Options activity signals bullish sentiment
- Five bullish prints totaling $10.57M
- Calls bought at ask, put sold on bid
- Break even around $1,67.65
- Break even around $1,83.45
- Short put seller keeps credit if above 1085
3:43MU· ticker
Micron — December call buying, 71% premium in 1,50 strike
- Two orders hit December 18th 1,50 call
- 3.9M call sweep, 3.6M split
- 7.5M total, 71% premium in same strike
- Break evens around $156–157
- 9% above stock
5:29lesson
Earnings beat and guidance reinforce bullish case
- Micron beat revenue by 6.2%
- EPS up 5.7% vs. street estimate
- Operating income 44.6B, 82.3% margin
- Data center revenue 10B, 10x YoY
- Guided to 61.5B for next quarter
7:01MU· ticker
Micron — strong supply outlook, pricing firm
- 75% of 2027 output already sold
- 2028 allocations negotiated
- High bandwidth memory supply contracted
- Management expects supply tight through 2028
- Sequential revenue growth expected
8:38lesson
Stock fundamentals vs. market reaction
- Stock underperformed despite strong fundamentals
- Bearish sentiment with short-term puts
- Bears like Michael Bur shifting views
- Long-term agreements stabilize revenue
- Micron resisting price discounts
8:39lesson
Earnings reactions and market expectations
- Earnings beat but market not impressed
- Nvidia example of diminishing returns
- No significant estimate revisions
- Need market to revalidate memory cycle
- Long-term agreements stabilize demand
8:40MU· ticker
Micron — options flow signals continued rally
- 10.57M in bullish options premium
- 71% concentrated in December strike
- Rally expected to continue
- NASDAQ up 1%
- Fundamental news may overpower reaction
8:41lesson
Signal vs. noise in Micron's earnings reaction
- Size of flow indicates bullish sentiment
- Barbell approach with short-term and long-term bets
- Stock may bounce on Friday
- Potential for continued price rise into December
- Bears like Michael Bur may sell at higher prices
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