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A 20 Million Call Bet on a Stock Down Two-Thirds
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:04CRWV· ticker
Coreweave — 52-week low, bond yields at 15%
- Stock down 20% past week, 45% past 6 months
- 55% down from 2025 high
- Bond yields pushing to 15%
- Potential sale of 35M new shares
- $3B convertible offering
2:00CRWV· ticker
Options trade — $19.6M call purchase
- 23,910 April 2027 90 calls bought
- Existing open interest 1,504 contracts
- Volume 16x prior
- Calls underwater at $64
- 52% upside needed to reach strike
3:56CRWV· ticker
Coreweave — AI infrastructure demand
- Rents Nvidia GPUs to AI companies
- $104B backlog from Microsoft, Open AI, Meta
- Financing demand up to $51.6B
- Debt 134% of market value
- Free cash flow negative $13.7B
3:57CRWV· ticker
Credit market vs. Wall Street sentiment
- Gartner warns 80% of neo cloud providers may fail by 2030
- Coreweave 2031/2032 yields at 15%
- Default swaps imply 63% default chance
- Analysts target $140.58 vs. current $64
- Some warn equity could be worth zero
3:58CRWV· ticker
Options trade — risk vs. reward
- Max loss is premium paid
- 6 months to stabilize financing
- $90 below Wall Street target
- Potential V-shaped rebound if backlog converts
- Credit market signals dark story
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