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"I am the house now": Bessent is Beating Bond Markets... for Now
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:10lesson
Bond market testing with geopolitical tensions
- Testing bond market with vigor as week progresses
- Yield suppression architecture since mid-August
- Fed's interest rate hike tension with energy prices
- War in US-Iran tensions driving oil prices
2:51lesson
Rate hike expectations remain stable
- Rate hike odds still between 80-90%
- Probability of two hikes by year-end at 40-50%
- Market in digestion mode after hawkish speech
- Crude oil surge not changing rate expectations
5:19lesson
Inflation expectations re-engage with bond buybacks
- Crude oil surge driving inflation expectations
- Break-even inflation rates revisiting February dynamics
- US Treasury doubles bond buybacks to $4B
- Bond market testing support levels
8:0210-year note· ticker
10-year note auction success
- 10-year note auction at 4.834% yield
- Bid-to-cover ratio 2.71
- Dealers took down 4.3% of offer
- Strong demand for bonds
10:30lesson
Bond market influence on inflation and FX
- Flattening of 30-year to 10-year yield spread
- Inflation expectations responding to bond market
- Gold and dollar dynamics tied to bond yields
- Bitcoin and silver influenced by yield suppression
13:11lesson
Market sentiment and upcoming data
- Gold holds despite hot data
- Dollar weaker against EUR
- S&P and NASDAQ in consolidation
- ECB rate decision and US PPI data upcoming
15:39lesson
Bond market positioning and asset allocation
- Focus on yield suppression trade
- Long gold, short dollar against major currencies
- Long Bitcoin and silver through call verticals
- Short risk via call verticals in Q's and SPY
18:12lesson
Macro Money wrap-up and future outlook
- Macro Money returns tomorrow
- Focus on yield suppression and macro calendar
- Testing of 30-year bond demand
- Market sentiment remains open question
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