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The Market Hasn't Moved Since May, but the Chaos Underneath Is Real.
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Chapters8 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00ES· ticker
ES — range-bound, no movement
- Monthly bar dull, no story
- Stuck in range for months
- War status unclear, daily shifts
- Roller coaster week: plunge, bounce, chaos
2:04IWM· ticker
IWM — slow decline, support failed
- Gentle lower lows, lower highs
- Trend line broken, support failed
- Drift mode, end of trading month
- End-of-month weirdness expected
4:11lesson
Semiconductor sector collapse
- Leopold Ashenbrer's fund 435% gains then collapsed
- AI trade peak June 18, now falling
- EW South Korea chart shows downtrend
- Resistance level near current price
6:27SMH· ticker
SMH — shorting failed, partial recovery
- Missed bottom by hours, short via puts
- Covered Tuesday, sold puts
- Whipsaw day, no fun
- 15-minute freefall, quick recovery
8:37SDNK· ticker
SDNK — well-formed pattern, missed entry
- Exceptionally low Wednesday
- Ideal short time: morning open
- Peaked quickly, great setup
- WDC and STX less clear
10:43lesson
Options portfolio management
- Trimmed positions from 45 to 28
- Long-dated puts: Jan/FXI March
- Caterpillar, Carvana, FXI show strength
- Resistance line for FXI: key level
12:55MSTR· ticker
MSTR — shorting successful, minor loss
- Still down 3.5%
- Participation in decline
- Mara M shows right triangle
- SpaceX at lifetime lows
12:56lesson
Market sentiment and risk factors
- Bitcoin trade struggles, IBIT down 3%
- Nvidia earnings August 26, risks ahead
- Bonds falling, rates rising
- Light weekend approach, cautious outlook
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