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Tim Knight Says the Whole Market Now Hinges on This One Line

NowPress play to follow along0:00 / 13:44
Chapters13 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00ES· ticker

ES — weakness followed by strength, uncertainty about future

  • Weakness followed by strength
  • Sell, sell, sell, then explosive move
  • Sell again, uncertainty about future
  • Pattern not completed, need to break Friday's lows
2:10ENQ· ticker

ENQ — lower highs, similar to ES

  • Lower highs, similar to ES
  • Strong sell-off, then push back
  • Today's high lower than previous peak
  • Semiconductors as key
4:08SMH· ticker

SMH — trend line broken, fighting back

  • Mashed at broken trend line
  • Trend line from liberation day low
  • Fighting back since Friday
  • Inflection point as key
6:09Microsoft· ticker

Microsoft — flat skew, neutral volatility

  • Microsoft at 530
  • 500 put and 560 call, no skew
  • Neutral implied volatility
  • Will see what happens
8:03EWZ· ticker

EWZ — down 5%, thinly traded

  • EWZ down over 5%
  • Thinly traded
  • Israel ETF, political focus
  • Not particularly interesting chart
10:12MU· ticker

MU — strong day, meandering chart

  • MU strong day
  • Meandering chart for richly valued stock
  • Strong rally over 4 days
  • Focus on bigger company, Nvidia
11:59Nvidia· ticker

Nvidia — resilient, no real price movement

  • Nvidia resilient, no real price movement
  • Trend line damage, shook it off
  • No real fire despite smoke
  • Earnings could inform future
12:00SpaceX· ticker

SpaceX — weak, earnings impact

  • SpaceX weak, earnings impact
  • 150 magical line, earnings took air out
  • Accounting tricks in gains
  • Island reversal, one-day wonder
12:01Anthropic· ticker

Anthropic — speculative, market reaction expected

  • Anthropic speculative, market reaction expected
  • Market digesting public version
  • Highly valued, long-term play
  • Waiting for public release
12:02XLU· ticker

XLU — cautious, scaling out of positions

  • XLU cautious, scaling out of positions
  • Pre-election, 90% cash deployed
  • Scaling out of tech positions
  • More cash than 50% by Tuesday
12:03Interest-sensitive ETF· ticker

Interest-sensitive ETF — key level at 91.5

  • Interest-sensitive ETF, key level at 91.5
  • Slowly bleeding lower
  • Reaction to press conference
  • Scramble out if reach 91.5
12:04TLT· ticker

TLT — not in, cautious approach

  • TLT not in, cautious approach
  • Pre-election, 90% cash deployed
  • Scaling out of positions
  • More cash than 50% by Tuesday
12:05Election· ticker

Election — cautious, potential for chaos

  • Election cautious, potential for chaos
  • Reaction not immediate, wait for FOMC
  • Market reaction after FOMC announcement
  • Election could delay market move

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