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The Bond Market Just Did Something Last Seen in 1994 #investing #optionstrading #marketcrash
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
September's financial anomalies in historical context
- September shows bizarre financial stats
- S&P 500 50-day MA above 27.4%
- S&P 500 200-day MA above 49%
- Index near all-time high
- Long-term weakness similar to .com bubble 2000
0:01lesson
Disparity between index and average stock
- S&P 500 gained 0.2%
- Market cap up 2%
- Equal weighted index down 4.4%
- Last time such gap seen in March 2020
0:02lesson
Oil correlation with 10-year yield
- WTI 10-year rolling 3-month correlation 0.65
- Highest since 1990
- Higher than Arab Spring, COVID, GFC
- Only eclipsed by Gulf War 0.66
0:03lesson
10-year yield surge in third quarter
- 10-year yield rose 87 basis points
- Biggest jump in over 30 years
- Last time seen in 1990 bond massacre
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