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Kevin Davitt Says This Is Not a Crash Call, Then Shows the Chart
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:05lesson
Market reaction to Fed meeting
- Fed meeting drove market velocity
- NDX implied V up 236 points
- Butterfly effect in play
- Zero days at 29400-29450
2:24NDX· ticker
NDX butterfly strategy
- Butterfly can turn $210 into $3500
- Structured trades allow clear thinking
- Closed butterfly at 29400
- Target for today at 29600
4:07IGV· ticker
Software vs semis performance
- Software outperforming semis above zero line
- Narrative shifted from software decline to growth
- Optionality spreads risk across sectors
6:13NDX· ticker
NDX correlation with software and semis
- NDX most correlated with software/semis
- Dynamic remains due to macro questions
- Hedged with downside and upside butterflies
7:48NDX· ticker
NDX potential downside move
- NDX at 297 after MAG7 earnings
- Liquidation risk if below 297
- Snowball effect from downside move
9:56NASDAQ 100· ticker
NASDAQ 100 historical comparison
- NASDAQ 100 up 82% from 2023 to now
- Similar shape to 1997-2000 S&P
- Potential for 2022-like move
11:54lesson
Market concentration and macro moves
- Markets concentrated in 10-20 names
- Macro move in top names could permeate
- Potential for liquidation down
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