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Most Traders Read the Fed Watch Tool Wrong. The Headline Number Isn't the Odds | CME x tastylive
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Chapters12 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Fed meeting uncertainty and market focus
- Fed meeting decision uncertain
- Market watches Fed Watch tool
- PPI and CPI reports upcoming
1:32lesson
Fed Watch tool mechanics
- Fed funds futures reflect market expectations
- 100 minus rate = futures price
- ZQ contract tracks 2026 rates
3:22SRZ3· ticker
Sofur contract analysis
- Sofur tracks short-term rates
- Secured rate trades lower than Fed funds
- Used for Fed action views
4:59ZQ· ticker
ZQ contract dynamics
- ZQ tracks 2026 Fed funds
- Arithmetic average of effective rates
- September 16 meeting focus
6:43lesson
Fed rate probability analysis
- 58.4% hike chance for September
- 53.9% + 15.5% for October
- 42% + 35% + 7.9% for December
8:31lesson
Rate curve dynamics
- Short-term vs long-term rate control
- 30-year rates near 2007 highs
- Besson's bond buybacks impact
10:09lesson
Historical rate insights
- 2022 inversion of 2-year vs 10-year
- 100 basis point spread
- Recession prediction correlation
11:38ZN· ticker
ZN futures analysis
- 10-year yield tracking
- Bond prices inversely correlate
- Mortgage rate implications
13:02ZB· ticker
ZB futures dynamics
- 30-year bond yield tracking
- Inflationary debt impact
- Long-end curve behavior
14:46SRZ3· ticker
Sofur market reactions
- Sofur price reflects rate expectations
- Bessant narrative impact
- 959 level implications
16:31lesson
Curve trading strategies
- Short-end vs long-end trading
- Steepener/bull flattener positions
- Inflation expectations impact
18:08lesson
Market instrument portfolio
- Multiple products for granular trading
- Rate vs rate reaction analysis
- Short-term vs long-term focus
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