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A High Win Rate Doesn't Make a Trade Safe, the Data Proves It
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Delta strangle risk analysis
- High win rate ≠ low risk
- Tail risk increases with lower delta
- Worst single loss as multiple of credit received
- Risk per dollar of credit
1:42lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Study from 2020 to 2026
- Win rate increases with lower delta
- Worst single loss as multiple of credit received
- Largest loss as percentage of buying power
- Risk per dollar of credit
3:33lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Win rate increases with lower delta
- Worst single loss as multiple of credit received
- Largest loss as percentage of buying power
- Risk per dollar of credit
- Historical data analysis
5:29lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Average P&L as percentage of credit
- Volatility impact on premiums
- 2026 data shows negative P&L at 5 delta
- Risk per dollar of credit
- Historical data analysis
7:38lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Risk per dollar of credit
- Tail risk increases with lower delta
- Multiple of credit received
- Largest loss as percentage of buying power
- Historical data analysis
9:38lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Risk per dollar of credit
- Tail risk increases with lower delta
- Multiple of credit received
- Largest loss as percentage of buying power
- Historical data analysis
11:20lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Risk per dollar of credit
- Tail risk increases with lower delta
- Multiple of credit received
- Largest loss as percentage of buying power
- Historical data analysis
13:15lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Risk per dollar of credit
- Tail risk increases with lower delta
- Multiple of credit received
- Largest loss as percentage of buying power
- Historical data analysis
14:56lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Risk per dollar of credit
- Tail risk increases with lower delta
- Multiple of credit received
- Largest loss as percentage of buying power
- Historical data analysis
16:49lesson
Delta strangle risk analysis
- Risk per dollar of credit
- Tail risk increases with lower delta
- Multiple of credit received
- Largest loss as percentage of buying power
- Historical data analysis
18:31lesson
SPX market moves by the hour
- SPX intraday volatility analysis
- Hourly price moves
- Volatility comparison across years
- Large hourly moves defined as 0.50%
- Volatility trends over time
20:08lesson
SPX market moves by the hour
- Hourly price changes
- Volatility comparison across years
- Large hourly moves defined as 0.50%
- Volatility trends over time
- Middle of the market has highest changes
21:47lesson
SPX market moves by the hour
- Large hourly moves more common now
- U-shaped volatility pattern
- Morning and closing hours have highest volatility
- Middle of the market has highest changes
- Volatility trends over time
23:21lesson
SPX market moves by the hour
- Extreme timing changes
- Daily highs and lows distribution
- 11:30 to 12:29 period has more daily lows
- Late day highs less common
- Volatility trends over time
24:38lesson
SPX market moves by the hour
- Market drift analysis
- Midday drift more positive
- Closing period drift weakened
- Final 30 minutes have slightly positive drift
- Volatility trends over time
26:04lesson
SPX market moves by the hour
- SPX drift trends
- Midday drift more positive
- Closing period drift weakened
- Final 30 minutes have slightly positive drift
- Volatility trends over time
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