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The Semis Have Moved 3% a Day for 50 Days. That Only Happens in a Crisis.
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Chapters14 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Market overview and earnings anticipation
- E-Minis up 20ish
- NASDAQ up 200ish
- Dow is red
- Russell just turned red
- Choppy market, two-sided action
1:42NDX· ticker
NDX downside butterfly hedge
- Downside butterfly hedge
- 11-day cycle
- Hedge against earnings
- Cover potential liquidation
- Hedge individual positions
3:44lesson
Implied volatility and options strategies
- Implied volatility differences
- Nvidia has higher IV
- Apple has lower IV
- Sell puts/strangles for Nvidia
- Debit strategies for Apple
5:59lesson
Semiconductor index volatility and earnings
- Semis led liquidation
- Philly semiconductor index swings
- Volatility unusual for long periods
- Earnings-led market story
- Potential sell downside in semis
7:40lesson
Options exposure and volatility management
- Options exposure to volatility
- Implied volatility priced at premium
- Managing weeks with spreads
- 5-day implied V vs realized
- VA normalizing
10:02lesson
Earnings calendar and trade execution
- Earnings calendar for Tesla, Alphabet
- Placing trades ahead of earnings
- Near-term calendar spreads
- Diagonal spreads for high reward
- Bullish plays on downside moves
11:50lesson
Implied volatility and earnings structure
- Earnings implied volatility structure
- Selling weekly, buying 3-month
- Crush after earnings
- Visualizing volatility
- Potential fireworks next week
13:43NDX· ticker
NDX volatility and earnings anticipation
- 4-day cycle 700 point implied move
- 14-day cycle 1100 point implied move
- Selling 4-day, buying 14-day
- Unknowns with earnings
- Potential trade for volatility
15:22lesson
Earnings demand and cash flow
- Demand for earnings
- Cash flow absorption
- Potential unraveling
- Nvidia's intertwined deals
- Chinese model performance
16:59NDX· ticker
NDX levels and calendar spreads
- 285 level bounce
- Buy 4-day, sell 3-day
- Collect half the value
- Reduce basis on trade
- Potential home run setup
18:42NDX· ticker
NDX put skew and butterfly trade
- Put skew ratio
- Buy $6,400, collect $3,700
- Put side ratio 21 to 25
- 13K for long, 10K for short
- Put skew is there
20:42NDX· ticker
NDX butterfly hedge and execution
- 11-day butterfly hedge
- Two for two, trying for three
- 277 274 271
- Max profit relative to max loss
- Effective hedge for portfolio
22:46NDX· ticker
NDX earnings and volatility management
- Earnings for Tesla, Google, Apple
- Fed meeting and CPI data
- Theoretical P&L if drop to 28,000
- Passage of time affects trade
- Implied volatility ebbs and flows
24:25lesson
Options trading and market anticipation
- Options trading in NDX
- Huge implied volatility next days
- Earnings calendar for week and next week
- Butterfly trade encompasses all
- Market chop around mid price
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