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Two Inflation Shocks Hit at Once and the Fed Is Now Behind
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Breakdown
0:11WTI· ticker
Crude oil rebounds above $88 after Iran negotiations
- Crude oil rebounds above $88
- US walks out of Iran negotiations
- Iran demands full sanctions relief
- Meeting with Gulf allies derailed
- Washington balks at resolution
2:50Dollar· ticker
Dollar higher as Fed hawkishness rises
- Markets respond to inflation and policy
- 68% chance of October rate hike
- December likely to hold
- January and April near certainty
- Second half of next year third hike
5:28S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 retreats into congestion level
- Index retreats from chart barrier
- Congestion level being overcome
- Rally at start of week failing
- Nasdaq holds upside bias
- Russell 2000 spooked by inflation
8:01Meta· ticker
Meta's news fuels AI infrastructure demand
- Meta's news fuels AI infrastructure demand
- Positive news from tech side
- Nasdaq holds break from earlier week
- Signs of overheating in tech sector
10:28TLT· ticker
TLT struggles to hold key levels
- TLT scraping low levels
- Positive divergence on RSI
- Bonds sinking as rates surge
- Long-end maturities under pressure
10:29Gold· ticker
Gold holds range despite losses
- Gold down almost 2%
- Still holding its range
- Silver down 4%
- Dollar debasement dynamics
- Trimmed exposure by a third
10:30Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin holds price despite dollar strength
- Bitcoin price holding despite dollar strength
- Break higher challenged
- Still long Bitcoin
- Trimmed exposure by a third
10:31EUR· ticker
Euro as dollar proxy shows strength
- Euro as stand-in for dollar direction
- Long position flipped over
- Euro showing strength
- Dollar sharply higher
10:32lesson
Inflationary pressures and Fed policy response
- Blistering PMI numbers
- Service input costs surge
- Inflationary demand
- Market pricing in hawkish Fed
- Departure from Fed projections
10:33lesson
Market positioning and trade strategies
- Long gold until break
- Long Bitcoin
- Short Russell 2000
- Long silver
- Short S&P 500
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