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Ilya Spivak Is Buying Bonds as the Warnings Get Louder
NowPress play to follow along0:00 / 10:51
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
AI narrative shaping market indices
- AI narrative dominates market sentiment
- S&P attempts to anchor around false breakout
- NASDAQ shows weakness in candlestick patterns
- Rotation into non-tech names like RSP and SPXT
2:46lesson
Economist cover as contrarian indicator
- Economist cover signals imminent bond crisis
- Call to buy 30-year bonds
- Contrarian indicator for traders
- Economist often right over long term
4:36lesson
Economist cover as sentiment extreme
- Economist covers major events before they peak
- Cover stories are 10-year arguments
- Near-term trades are already done by cover time
- Bonds blow up was a 2020 cover story
6:50lesson
Bonds as scarce loanable funds
- Bonds reflect scarcity of loanable funds
- Governments unwilling to address deficits
- Hyperscalers demand more funds
- AI narrative confirms bond market dynamics
9:22TLT· ticker
TLT call vertical at the money
- TLT call vertical at the money
- 10 to 1 risk-reward ratio
- TLT trade at $100/share
- Bond market undervalued
9:23ZB· ticker
ZB undervaluation and sentiment
- ZB undervalued with low portfolio holdings
- Futures market at 94th percentile
- Sentiment extreme in bond market
- Potential for significant portfolio reshuffling
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