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The 50-Year Market Regime That Just Ended

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Breakdown

0:00lesson

VIX volatility shift

  • VIX spike signals volatility shift
  • Historical low-interest rate regime gone
  • Structural change in cost of money
  • Historical analog not reliable
  • Risk-on backdrop is history
2:48Coreweave· ticker

Coreweave 13.6% gain

  • Coreweave up 13.6%
  • Calls bought for bounce back
  • Bonds imply 63% default probability
  • AI universe not immune to risk
5:15SK Hynix· ticker

SK Hynix down 30%

  • SK Hynix down 30% from highs
  • First name in core week
  • Ant metaphor for systemic risk
5:16Nasdaq· ticker

Nasdaq 6% decline frequency

  • 6% Nasdaq decline occurred 128 times
  • 38 instances during crises
  • Non-crisis instances also common
  • VIX above 20 signals premium selling

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