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Someone Just Paid $4.4M for Google Calls Right Before It Joined the Dow
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Chapters6 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Dow Jones Index Rebalancing Impact
- Google joins Dow Jones
- Dow rebalancing creates buying pressure
- Fund managers must track index
- Index changes affect stock flows
1:45GOOG· ticker
Google — Options Trade Analysis
- August 21st 380 call bought
- 4.4 million premium paid
- 52 days to expiration
- 4,000 contracts involved
- IV at 37%
3:26lesson
Google Valuation and Market Expectations
- TD Cohen estimates 475
- JP Morgan 460
- Scotia Bank 450
- Oppenheimer 445
- Average forecast 21% above current price
5:06lesson
Signal vs Noise in Google Trade
- 4,000-5,000 contracts
- Not enough to move stock
- Someone has a thesis
- Catalyst-driven positioning
6:36lesson
Google Earnings and Volatility
- July 28th earnings report
- 22+ days to expiration
- Implied volatility 39%
- Options cheap in earning cycle
- Pre-earnings runup possible
8:24lesson
Seasonality and Alternative Plays
- Google up 6.8% average in July
- Past 10 years
- Calendar spread possible
- Diagonal spread setup
- Short put spread option
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