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Cem Karsan Breaks Down the Earnings Beats Driving the Rebound
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00Meta· ticker
Meta — earnings miss, revenue beat
- EPS 383 vs 680 expected
- Revenues 64.6B vs 63.4B expected
- Stock chops around 697-709
1:58Tesla· ticker
Tesla — EPS beat, revenue miss
- EPS 48c vs 45c expected
- Revenues 28.046B vs 28.25B expected
- Stock nudges up to 386.55
4:22Texas Instruments· ticker
Texas Instruments — revenue beat
- Revenues 262 vs 240 expected
- Stocks push higher after hours
6:49lesson
Earnings reports and political timing
- Meta, Tesla, SpaceX earnings beat
- Reports 2 weeks before election
- Positive earnings not translating to market gains
8:54Meta· ticker
Meta — after hours price and earnings
- 7208 after hours
- EPS beat by 0-5%
- Average return on positive surprises -0.2%
10:49lesson
Earnings and market reaction
- Positive earnings not translating to gains
- Earnings growth pacing at 29%
- No catalyst for market movement
12:41Kinder Morgan· ticker
Kinder Morgan — EPS beat
- EPS 35c vs 33c expected
- Stocks unchanged
- Price at $34
12:42Lamb Research· ticker
Lamb Research — stock down
- Down 286 to 260.59
- Expected move down to 237.5
- Stocks down to 245
12:43Meta· ticker
Meta — stock up
- Up to 722
- Tesla up to 393
- Texas Instruments up to 293
12:44lesson
Volatility and market risk
- VIX down from 22
- Skew at 2019/2021 levels
- Institutional hedging ahead of midterms
12:45lesson
Market risk and skew
- Skew at 2019/2021 levels
- Institutional awareness of risk
- Decline likely within months
12:46SAP· ticker
SAP — EPS and revenue beat
- EPS 212 vs 209 expected
- Revenues beat by 2%
- Stock up 1.6%
12:47IBM· ticker
IBM — EPS and revenue beat
- EPS 295 vs 287 expected
- Revenues beat
- Stock up to 259.89
12:48lesson
Market reaction to earnings
- Earnings not translating to gains
- Market shrugging off positive surprises
- Skew and risk indicators elevated
12:49lesson
Geopolitical risks and market impact
- Iran war headline risk
- Interest rates and cost pressures
- Structural risks over months
12:50lesson
Structural risks and market indicators
- Oil, 10-year yield, dollar index at 2008 levels
- Combined pressure on equities
- Institutional hedging ahead
12:51lesson
Financial stress and market indicators
- OFR Financial Stress Index
- Structural headwinds for equities
- Institutional hedging and concern
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