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Why 57% of These Bounces Fell Another 5%
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00NASDAQ 100· ticker
NASDAQ 100 — dead cat bounce, 13% drawdown
- Dead cat bounce driving markets today
- NASDAQ 100 rallying sharply
- 13% drawdown over 22 days
- First bounce is easy part
- History suggests warning label
0:01NASDAQ 100· ticker
NASDAQ 100 — historical performance post drawdown
- 47 comparable episodes since 1986
- 1.47% gain next week
- 0.37% gain next month
- 1.7% gain next three months
- 57% suffered 5% decline next month
0:02NASDAQ 100· ticker
NASDAQ 100 — median worst drawdown
- Over 40% lost 10% next month
- Median worst drawdown 3-month period 11.54%
- Semiconductors bouncing after Thursday's liquidation
0:03treasury yields· ticker
Treasury yields — stronger hiring pushing yields higher
- Stronger than expected hiring pushing yields higher
- Pressure on growth stock valuations
0:04AI· ticker
AI spending — still under scrutiny
- AI spending still under scrutiny
0:05lesson
Market caution — avoid chasing rally or naked puts
- Avoid chasing rally or blindly selling naked puts
- Look for improving breath, stabilizing credit, lower volatility
- Sharp rebound can happen before final low
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