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Markets Look the Other Way as Yields Keep Rising. What’s Changed?

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Breakdown

0:09lesson

Markets trying to break higher despite rising rates

  • Stock markets trying to break higher
  • Long-term rates continue to rise
  • Fed calculus and market concerns
  • Focus on NASDAQ and S&P 500
  • Momentum divergence noted
2:37lesson

Market resilience amid rate pressure

  • Russell still stuck below range top
  • Gold, silver, Bitcoin holding
  • US Dollar strong
  • Euro recovering from intraday fall
  • Aussie dollar more constructive
5:05lesson

Economic data and Fed expectations

  • ISM service sector report down
  • 54.5 vs expected 55
  • Employment growth at 50.1
  • New orders on pace
  • Price component surges
7:45lesson

Contrasting PMI data and Fed outlook

  • Services and manufacturing data mixed
  • Composite model at growth band
  • Services dominate growth
  • Manufacturing in contraction
  • S&P Global PMI surge
10:29lesson

Fed rate hike expectations shifting

  • October rate hike probability down to 25%
  • December hike still likely
  • Market consensus on 95% chance for December
  • Next year's hikes reduced
  • Inflation trending toward target
12:58lesson

Inflation trends and GDP forecast

  • Three-month inflation at 2%
  • Six-month inflation trending lower
  • Atlanta Fed GDP model update
  • Third quarter GDP forecast lower
  • Consumer confidence weak
15:19lesson

Market dynamics and event risks

  • Market reducing Fed hike bets
  • Tech indices holding up
  • Russell sinking due to rates
  • AI buildout not offsetting consumer squeeze
  • Consumer confidence weak
17:42lesson

Exposure and market outlook

  • Long gold, added to Aussie dollar
  • Still long pound, waiting on euro
  • Short Canadian dollar
  • EWZ up 13% on Brazil election news
  • FEZ put vertical on Euro Stocks 50
20:03lesson

Silver, TLT, and crude oil outlook

  • Silver up 1% but underwater
  • TLT call vertical on bond bottom
  • Crude oil holding at range bottom
  • Time to expiration for silver
  • Waiting for meaningful relief
22:14lesson

Closing remarks and future outlook

  • Macro Money returns tomorrow
  • Comment on YouTube, Elaspac, Blue Sky
  • Writing for tasty.com
  • Happy trading
  • Market dynamics to continue

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