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Someone Bought $27 Million in Calls Into a 47% Crash
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0:04NBIS· ticker
Nebius Group — violent move, 47% drawdown
- Nearly 27 million dollars of calls into 47% drawdown
- Stock started year at $84, peaked at $299.86
- Closed at 159.17, 36% decline in 17 days
- Still up 90% year-to-date
2:08NBIS· ticker
Nebius Group — sector repricing, $6B in sellers
- Broader Neocloud credit square spreading
- Coreweave bonds pushing through 15%
- Sellers made 6 billion across group this month
- Nebius caught in sector repricing
4:03NBIS· ticker
Nebius Group — call buying at close, 26.91 million
- 14.13 million in April 27 260 calls at 3:59 p.m
- Break even at 278.13, 62% upside from Thursday's close
- Volume 89x open interest, fresh positioning
- 12.77 million in March 27 230 calls next day
- Break even at 246.09, 55% above Thursday's close
5:49NBIS· ticker
Nebius Group — corporate backdrop, debt load
- Michael Burry shorted around 211.77 in August
- Long-term debt doubled to 8.4 billion by end of March
- Added 5.75 billion in convertible raise in August
- Announced 3.5 billion secured facility at SOFR + 2.75%
5:50NBIS· ticker
Nebius Group — revenue growth, earnings report
- Q2 revenue up 454% to 582.3 million
- Q3 expected near 905 million, 57% sequential growth
- Full year guidance 3 to 3.4 billion
- Earnings report on November 12th
5:51NBIS· ticker
Nebius Group — analyst targets, call break evens
- Average analyst target around 301.30, old all-time high
- Bank of America targets 310, Piper Sandler drops to 185
- 246 March break even, 278 April break even
- Both below analyst average target
5:52NBIS· ticker
Nebius Group — earnings report, short interest
- Both contracts carry November earnings report
- Management to defend growth story
- 20% float sold short, squeeze potential
- Debt load supports corporate buildout
5:53lesson
Signal vs. Noise — call buying at close
- 26.91 million bought at closing bell on two days
- Question: serious attempt to catch falling knife or stepping in too early
- Credit markets still signaling distress
- Story just getting started?
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