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Greg Weldon Can Picture a Bond Market Collapse Before Gold Ever Breaks
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0:00lesson
Greg Weldon's background and FOMC context
- Greg Weldon is a long-time pit operator
- He worked in COMEX gold and silver pits
- Managed money at Moore Capital
- Runs Weldon Financial and publishes Global Macro Strategy Report
1:36lesson
Bond market concerns and debt black hole
- Bond market collapse is more concerning than gold
- 40 trillion in debt creates a debt black hole
- QE is the propulsion to escape the black hole
- Bond market suggests Fed will reflate instead of deflate
3:14lesson
Bond market signals and Fed's inflation fight
- Bond market suggests two hikes by October
- Fed may unwind hikes in 2027
- QE is stealthy and may prevent rate hikes
- Inflation may accelerate, not decline
4:55lesson
Real Fed funds rate and inflation expectations
- Real Fed funds rate is still stimulative
- R-star is 3.75% but Powell missed turning points
- Warsh needs to be hawkish like Volcker
- Inflation indicators are above 4%
6:29lesson
Fed's credibility and policy implications
- Fed lacks credibility to fight inflation
- PPI and CPI show inflation is accelerating
- Fed's SEP ignores AI impact on labor market
- Curve steepening may signal policy shift
8:13lesson
Fed's potential actions and bond market impact
- Fed may hike rates to 5%
- Bond market may need Fed rescue to avoid deflation
- Inflation may rise to prevent debt deflation
- Curve steepening is a key signal
9:45lesson
Monetary conditions and stock market vulnerability
- Monetary and credit conditions are tightening
- Stock market is not priced for tightening
- Dollar rally is not real without RMB weakness
- Stock correction may be the next catalyst
11:19lesson
Consumer behavior and economic indicators
- High-income consumers are turning down
- Disposable income is negative for two months
- Home equity withdrawal is shutting off
- Consumer cocooning is starting
12:52lesson
Gold market and trading philosophy
- Gold is not shorted due to potential for long-term upside
- Trading requires both macro and technical signals
- Gold may enter a new lower C wave
- QE may drive gold prices higher
14:26lesson
Greg Weldon's trading approach and market outlook
- Trading requires a blend of macro and technical signals
- Gold may be a generational buying opportunity
- QE may prevent gold from reaching low levels
- Market correction may be a buying opportunity
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