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Brent Kochuba on the Gamma Flip That Could Turn a Dip Into a Slide
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Oil and rates correlation shift
- Oil prices up sync with equities lower
- 10-year yield and oil in sync
- Rates under control via productivity and AI
- Iran situation uncontrollable
- Oil rise forces rates higher
1:37SPX· ticker
SPX gamma positioning and volatility
- Positive gamma around at-the-money options
- Zero DT selling spreads below condor trades
- Negative gamma below 7,600
- VIX shifting higher
- Volatility spiral with higher puts
3:16VIX· ticker
VIX and volatility curve flattening
- VIX futures contango less than a point
- U contract closer to V contract
- Volatility curve flattening
- Put skew lifting
- Implied vol lifting
4:52IWM· ticker
IWM and AI sentiment
- AI sentiment shifting negative
- Deep Seek model release
- Token prices trending lower
- Put spreads cheap for IWM
- CPI and Iran events upcoming
6:18Oil· ticker
Oil and rate uncertainty
- Oil moving higher
- 10-year yield at new highs
- Uncertainty over rate hikes
- Fed Watch at 80% hike
- Macro uncertainty affecting equities
7:49VIX· ticker
VIX and market uncertainty
- VIX at 18
- Volatility lifting
- Negative gamma landscape
- Equities don't like uncertainty
- Macro situation clouds earnings
9:10Oracle· ticker
Oracle earnings and skew
- Oracle up 10%
- Call skew rich at 95
- IV rank 65
- Call diagonals as trade strategy
- Macro noise complicates earnings
10:42Oracle· ticker
Oracle options and volatility
- One-day calls at 200% IV
- Eight-day calls at 100% IV
- Volatility floor modeling
- Cost basis reduction
- Raw IV at 50% as floor
12:08Oracle· ticker
Oracle strike selection and premium
- Limited strike selection
- Premium flattened into strikes
- New strikes added
- Skew premium in October
- Options rich and meaty
14:00Oracle· ticker
Oracle strike premium and models
- Skew premium 40-60 cents
- Options prices solid
- 200 strike at 130 bid
- New strikes added
- Position modeling for worst case
15:35SpaceX· ticker
SpaceX resistance and call selling
- Resistance at 155
- Call selling into new highs
- Monetizing upside
- Waiting for clarity
- Slippery downside under 7600
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