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13 Million in Calls Bet Against Michael Burry's Palantir Crash Call
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:04PALT· ticker
Palanteer — bearish vs bullish bets
- Palanteer trading at 16598
- Market cap around $400 billion
- Michael Bur predicts $42 share price
- 75% downside from current price
1:54PALT· ticker
Palanteer — bullish call buyer
- Buyer of 13.58 million calls
- Requires stock to push into new all-time highs
- Break even at $23060
- Odds of payout about 1 in 3
3:45PALT· ticker
Palanteer — call strike details
- December 17th, 2027 190 call
- 3,150 contracts traded
- Break even at $23060
- Volume past 4,100
5:24PALT· ticker
Palanteer — smaller call details
- January 21st, 498 days 250 call
- 300 contracts put in
- Break even at $277.30
- Odds of payout 1 in 6
5:25PALT· ticker
Palanteer — company fundamentals
- Revenue grew 93% last quarter
- Commercial revenue up 149%
- Net dollar retention 157%
- Adjusted free cash flow margin 63%
5:26PALT· ticker
Palanteer — valuation and guidance
- Raised full-year guidance to 8.154 billion
- Average street targets $193.88
- Targets range from $80 to $255
- All-time high $20752
5:27lesson
Signal versus noise in options trade
- Timing and duration are the signal
- Noise is the bearish call on AI bubble
- 75% decline prediction
- Market treating AI multiples like regular software
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